Headline 11/5/08: How did Barack Obama Lose?

(...5 days from today)

The entire world had predicted last week that Barack Obama would win the Presidential election. The polls told us so for weeks. The pundits told us so for months. This transformational candidate would win the country with more than a 300 electoral college votes. So what happened last night? How did John McCain squeak out a narrow 280 - 258 victory? There is just one word to explain it...BIAS!

Many this morning are talking about the Bradley effect and how voters lied to pollsters and in the end could not vote for a black candidate. This is irresponsible and false. The truth is the polls never showed Barack with a big lead unless you projected the vote incorrectly.

There were three major flaws in our pre-election polls that all the experts failed to see. First, the myth of the youth vote was once again proved false. Yesterday youth turnout exceeded 2004 numbers by less than 1% while all other segments of the population turned out in record numbers. Next, none of the polls predicted that so many Democrats in the rust belt and traditional red states would jump off the Obama ship. Apparently there really are conservative Democrats that could not vote for someone with such a liberal voting records. Finally the polls were distorted intentionally by the Obama campaign to try to achieve the sense of inevitability.

The distortion of the polls started in the Primary. Obama supporters were getting themselves onto polling lists and passing the word to insure they always answered pollsters questions. Online polls and phone polls were packed with partisans from one side. Meanwhile the disaffected conservatives who reluctantly supported John McCain had no enthusiasm for such trivial time wastes. The most ironic part of this strategy is that it is what likely cost Obama Pennsylvania by less than a 1000 vote margin.

The polls in Pennsylvania showed a 5-15 margin for Senator Obama before the weekend. So how did he lose the state? Simple. His voters didn't believe they had to show up. Obama won just six counties in Pennsylvania all surrounding Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Harrisburg. His campaign was destroyed in the suburbs and rural areas in margins not seen since the Reagan elections.

So today we find ourselves with huge Democratic majorities in the Senate and House with a moderate Republican to lead them in the White House. This is not what everyone expected, but it may be what everyone needs.



This may not be the headline on Tuesday, but it could be. Should be. I pray it will be!